This has been the most disappointing season of my lifetime.  It’s amazing, that less than 2 months ago we were all bouncing off walls after Meeks dropped 54 on UT and established us as the clear favorite to win the SEC. 

I’m going to focus on Gillispie’s job status and the development of our roster and players in this email.  I’ll send out another email some other time about my thoughts on his actual coaching (which leaves a lot to be desired) in a later email.

I don’t think Gillispie should be fired.  While the NIT sucks, even the best coaches miss the NCAA tournament at some point.  Pitino, Calhoun, Donovan, Krzyzewski, Boeheim, Howland, etc have all missed the NCAA Tournament in the last 15 years.  All have also won championships (except Howland who went to 3 straight final fours).  Now those coaches have earned the benefit of the doubt that maybe Gillispie hasn’t yet.  But my point is that missing the tournament doesn’t necessarily indicate that a coach can’t get the job done.  Obviously, I don’t think we should have missed the tournament, but I don’t think missing it once in your second season is a fireable offense.  Joe B. Hall went 13-13 in his second season despite having the #1 recruiting class (nicknamed the Super Kittens) in their junior season.  A year later they knocked off an undefeated Indiana team in the Elite 8 before losing to UCLA in the championship game.  Matt Doherty went 8-20 at North Carolina and still got another season to turn it around.  He wasn’t fired until after the next season when he only went to the NIT. 

Don’t get me wrong, if things don’t improve quickly it will be time to send Gillispie on his way.  I think he should get 3 years minimum, and 4 years unless he really sucks next year.  But as of right now, he hasn’t even had his first full recruiting class play.  The class of 2008 was half his and half Tubby’s.  The class of 2009 included Matt Pilgrim and Donald Williams who haven’t played a game yet.

The reason Tubby isn’t still here is because he had a bad mix of players on his roster with little help on the way.  When Gillispie arrived our front court consisted of Stevenson, Carter and Coury.  We had 3 (Meeks, Bradley, Crawford) players on the roster that could shoot from outside and 2 were seniors, so they wouldn’t be around long.  The only small forward on the roster was Ramon Harris who had played a total of 32 minutes as a freshman.  We were in big trouble if we didn’t land Patterson.  So let’s take a look at the development of our roster since Gillispie has arrived.

- In Gillispie’s first recruiting class he added Patterson to help on the inside.  He also got Legion to help make up for the losses of Crawford and Bradley at the end of the year.  Legion didn’t work out which left us with only Meeks as a perimeter threat. 

- In Gillispie’s second recruiting class he upgraded the inside with Harrelson and Pilgrim.  While Harrelson hasn’t been great, he is a big upgrade over Coury as our 3rd big man.  Pilgrim won’t be eligible until next season.  Miller was signed to solve our small forward problem for the next 4 years.  Liggins was signed to be Jasper’s successor at the PG.  Unfortunately Jasper left, which left us with no PG except Liggins.  Galloway was signed to bridge the gap.  So far Galloway and Liggins haven’t worked out, which left us a hole at PG.  Hopefully they will be able to fill that role more effectively next season. 

- The 3rd recruiting class consists of Orton, Hood, and Villarino.  Assuming they live up to their recruiting ratings.   Orton is a true center that solves our interior problems.  If Patterson sticks around, we have the potential to dominate every team we play inside except maybe North Carolina and Louisville.  If Patterson leaves we still have Stevenson and Pilgrim to fight for minutes at the PF with Orton and Harrelson to man the C position.  Without Patterson, we will still probably be upgrading our defense and rebounding, but our post scoring may not be as good.  Hood provides us another scorer on the perimeter.  Hopefully he will be able back up Meeks and Miller and then step in as Meeks’s replacement as a sophomore.  Unfortunately, Villarino doesn’t appear to be the immediate solution at PG, but he may fill that role later in his career.  We are still trying to add a PG with Eric Bledsoe, Darius Smith and a few lower end prospects getting attention from us. 

Gillispie has significantly upgraded the front court.  He has struggled to fill our holes in the backcourt because of the Jasper transfer, Legion failure, and Liggins/Galloway underachievement.  If you had told me when Gillispie was hired that our 2009 depth chart would be Jasper/Legion at PG and Meeks/Legion at SG, I would have been happy.  Right now out of his highly rated recruits he is 2 out of 4.  Patterson and Miller are good.  Legion failed.  Liggins has been a disappointment so far but could be good in the future.  If we’re still making excuses for our roster in 2 years then it will be time to make a change.  The one thing I like about his recruiting is the consistency of his classes.  He has brought in 2 top 40 players in each of his first 3 years and has already signed a top 5 player in his 4th class.  One of Tubby’s problems was that he would have 1 good class every 3-4 years with mediocre to bad classes in between.  So far Gillispie hasn’t had a super class, but he’s getting us top 10 type classes every year. 

When Gillispie arrived, he was known for his hard (obsessive) work, great recruiting, and player development.  Let’s take a look at his player development. 

- I think it’s save to say that Crawford and Bradley improved in their senior season.  For 3 years I thought both were selfish and thought we’d be better off when they were gone.  By the end of their senior year the only issue I had with them was that they turned it over too much.

- Stevenson played well in the second half of last season but has leveled off or regressed this season.  Still, he is a serviceable PF which is more than we could say about him at the beginning of last season. 

- I think most UK fans expected Meeks to score 17-20 per game this year, but 25 is pretty phenomenal.  I’m not sure how much of this is Gillispie’s development and how much is just opportunity.  He’s healthy and not stuck behind Crawford and Bradley for the first time in his career.  He still has a lot to improve on outside of his scoring.  So we’ll see his progression next season.  I do expect him to be back.

- I think Patterson and Miller were both pretty complete players when they arrived.  Patterson was great as a freshman and didn’t really have a lot to improve on.  But he has still improved in almost every statistical category as a sophomore.  He would likely be first in the nation in FG% if not for his finger injury.  Miller had some confidence issues early on, but has always had a good skill set.  He has been shooting better lately.  He still needs to be more aggressive offensively, but I’m happy with him. 

- The rest of the first year players (Liggins, Galloway, and Harrelson) haven’t been great, but it takes time to develop players.  We’ll know more about them in the future.

- Harris and Porter are both limited.  I’m not sure if any coach could have gotten more out of them.  The problem isn’t that they haven’t developed.  The problem is that they should be 10th and 11th in the rotation instead of 4th and 5th. 

It’s still a little too early to rate him here, but the only complete failure is Legion, who has also been a disappointment at Illinois so far. 

In conclusion, assuming the natural progression of our first year players, I’m generally happy with our future roster.  I’ll give him a B in recruiting/development at this point, but there is still enough uncertainty that it could go up or down easily.  Best case, Liggins becomes a solid PG next season or we sign another PG who is ready to play, and we have a lineup of Liggins/Bledsoe?, Meeks, Miller, Patterson, and Orton.  That’s pretty good on paper.  Worst case, we have a lineup of Porter, Hood, Miller, Stevenson, and Orton.  Gillispie might be in trouble if that happens.